Thursday 15 November 2018

Forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirm that the global demand for natural gas will surge over the next 20 years, creating a phenomenal economic opportunity for Australia.

APPEA Chief Executive Dr Malcolm Roberts said the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook shows that a growing natural gas industry is an essential part of a cleaner energy future.

Dr Roberts said the IEA report also highlighted a major challenge for Australia, with the United States expected to become the world’s leading LNG exporter by the mid-2020s and a host of new suppliers emerging after 2025.

Other highlights from this year’s World Energy Outlook include:

- Oil and gas together will account for more than half of all global energy consumption in 2040. Oil is the largest source of energy share (27 per cent) and gas the second largest (25 per cent) in 2040.

- Gas is forecast to remain the fastest-growing fossil fuel to 2040, with annual growth of 1.6 per cent.

- Oil demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent to 2040.

- By 2040, gas production is forecast to have increased by 44 per cent to 5.4 trillion cubic metres (tcm), accounting for a quarter of global energy demand.

- A shift in trade flows towards the Asia-Pacific region, with China soon to become the world’s largest gas-importing country, with net imports approaching the level of the European Union by 2040. It is also on track to surpass Japan as the largest LNG importer.

- 100 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG liquefaction capacity is under construction: much of this capacity is in Australia and the US.

- The global gas market has comfortably absorbed a recent ramp-up in LNG liquefaction capacity; new LNG investment decisions are starting to come through.

- The IEA estimates US $8.4 trillion of investment is needed in global gas supply to 2040 to ensure secure and reliable supply.

- India, China, Africa and the Middle East are the main centres of gas demand growth to 2040, with demand increasing by 200 per cent, 185 per cent, 112 per cent and 58 per cent respectively.

The 2018 World Energy Outlook can be found here.